![]() I’ve grouped these into 5% bins, and then plotted a bar for each bin, showing how many of those shots actually hit. On the X axis is the stated chance to hit: the number that popped up in the box when I took the shot. The Fairnessīelow is the best graph I could think of to represent the fairness of the random number generator. You really do notice only the negative streaks, and never the positive streaks. I ended up losing two of the four men, and since it was the first mission, I restarted in disgust. On the other hand, here’s a (much more likely) streak from the third game I started, from the first mission, where I missed my first six shots with percentages: So even when I had amazing positive luck with my shots, I didn’t even notice until I took stock of the spreadsheet after the mission. I downed 20 enemies in all, and lost 3 of my 6 men because I got so overwhelmed. In the first streak, all the aliens appeared on one turn, and I couldn’t kill the Chrysalids faster than they were turning the civilians into zombies. Both of the above streaks came in “very difficult” terror missions. I wasn’t sitting there shouting “amazing!” as hit after hit piled on. What’s interesting is how I felt while playing the missions. The longest streaks of hits that I noticed in the data was one streak with an incredible 18 hits in a row, and another with 19 hits in a row, with the following percentage chances to hit: Keeping this record of hits and misses in XCOM taught me a lot about the psychology of playing the game. (I ignored overwatch shots because I couldn’t see their probabilities, and also didn’t bother with rockets and other later-game non-gun weapons etc.) I’ve recorded over 1200 shots, and in this post I’ll examine the data to see if XCOM is fair. ![]() For every shot I actively took, I recorded the displayed chance of it hitting, and whether it actually hit or missed. Because I’m completely hooked on the game For science, I’ve been playing a lot of XCOM, and I have been recording my shots as I played. Many people claim - either seriously, or in jest because they are so frustrated with their luck - that it is broken. A huge amount of discussion about the game XCOM: Enemy Unknown pertains to the random number generation.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |