One unknown factor, though, is how the many state voting-law changes since 2020 will affect turnout. We also drew data on reported registrations from the U.S. House of Representatives (read more about the methodology). For the U.S., which has no central elections authority, we compiled the total votes cast in the 2020 presidential election from each state’s election office, and checked them against figures compiled by the Office of the Clerk of the U.S. (In some countries, IDEA’s VAP estimates are lower than the reported number of registered voters due to methodological differences.)įor most countries, we gathered vote totals from national election authorities or statistical agencies. Registered-voter turnout is derived from each country’s reported registration data. Voting-age turnout is based on estimates of each country’s voting-age population (VAP) by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA). In countries that elect both a legislature and a head of state, we used the election that attracted the most voters. 31, 2022, except in cases where that election was for a largely ceremonial position (such as president in a parliamentary system) or for European Parliament members, as turnout is often substantially lower in such elections. Using both denominators, we calculated turnout rates for the most recent national election in each country as of Oct. So to compare turnout calculations internationally, we used two different denominators – the estimated voting-age population and the total number of registered voters, because they’re readily available for most countries. But eligible-voter estimates are difficult or impossible to find for many nations. Political scientists often define turnout as votes cast divided by the estimated number of eligible voters. For greater diversification, we added to that group the six current candidates for OECD membership (Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Croatia, Peru and Romania), as well as six other economically significant electoral democracies (India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Africa, Taiwan and Uruguay), for an even 50 countries. turnout rates with those of other countries.įor our comparison group, we began with the 37 other countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a group of mostly highly developed, mostly democratic states. According to a recent Center survey, 72% of registered voters say they’re “extremely” or “very” motivated to vote this year, and 65% say it “really matters” which party wins control of Congress – a level roughly on par with the run-up to the 2018 vote.Īs the 2022 midterm elections draw near, Pew Research Center decided to revisit its occasional comparisons of U.S. This year, some political analysts are predicting another heavy turnout in this month’s midterms. The 2020 voting surge followed unusually high turnout in the 2018 midterm elections, when about 47.5% of the voting-age population – and 51.8% of voting-age citizens – went to the polls. More than 158.4 million people voted in that election, according to a Pew Research Center tabulation of official state returns, amounting to 62.8% of people of voting age, using Census Bureau estimates of the 2020 voting-age population. general election soared to levels not seen in decades, fueled by the bitter campaign between Joe Biden and Donald Trump and facilitated by pandemic-related changes to state election rules. Tellers in Seoul, South Korea, count ballots from the May 2017 presidential election.
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